Over the past few decades, GCC countries have transformed healthcare through sustained investment in hospitals, healthcare infrastructure and wider access to care. These advances have reduced infant mortality, increased life expectancy and brought many communicable diseases under control.
Alongside these improvements, the region’s health profile has changed. As people live longer and lifestyles evolve, chronic diseases, particularly non-communicable diseases (NCDs), have become the dominant health challenge across the GCC. Cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases now account for between 72% and 84% of the total disease burden across GCC countries, compared with a global average of 64.4%.
Figure 1. Share of total disease burden (DALYs) attributable to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), 2023
Diabetes illustrates the scale of this transition. According to the latest estimates, it affects between one in six and one in four adults across the GCC, compared with a global prevalence of 10.8%. Kuwait records the highest prevalence at 25.6%, while rates also exceed 20% in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE. Even Oman, the lowest in the region, reports a prevalence of 17.0%.
Figure 2. Diabetes prevalence in the GCC, 2024
These figures reflect a healthcare system that has entered a new phase.
As people live longer and communicable diseases become less prominent, chronic diseases have naturally emerged as the region’s defining healthcare challenge. Increasingly, they are also becoming an economic one.
Success has Redefined the Challenge
The growing prominence of chronic diseases does not necessarily mean that the health of GCC populations is deteriorating. Rather, it reflects the epidemiological transition that accompanies economic development, longer life expectancy and improvements in healthcare.
While chronic diseases now account for the majority of the region’s disease burden, age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates attributable to non-communicable diseases have declined across every GCC country over the past three decades. In other words, people are, on average, losing fewer healthy years to these conditions than previous generations.
Figure 3. Age-standardised burden of non-communicable diseases (DALYs), 1990–2023
This apparent paradox reflects significant progress in healthcare. Earlier diagnosis, improved management of chronic conditions, advances in medical treatment and lower premature mortality mean that many people are living longer and healthier lives despite having chronic diseases.
At the same time, ageing populations and lifestyle-related risk factors mean that more people are developing these conditions. The challenge facing healthcare systems has therefore evolved. It is not simply about treating disease, but about preventing it, delaying its onset and helping people remain healthy for longer.
Chronic Disease is an Economic Issue
The implications extend well beyond healthcare systems.
Unlike acute illnesses, chronic diseases require lifelong management rather than one-time treatment. They increase demand for specialist care, long-term medication and ongoing monitoring. At the same time, they reduce labour force participation, increase absenteeism and presenteeism, and affect productivity throughout working life.
For GCC economies investing heavily in knowledge industries and human capital, these impacts represent a significant economic challenge.
A study by Finkelstein et al. (2021), highlighted in the World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update, estimated that the direct medical cost of seven major non-communicable diseases across the GCC reached approximately US$16.7 billion in 2019. However, the much larger economic impact came from lost productivity. Absenteeism and presenteeism were estimated to cost the region more than US$80 billion, equivalent to around 2.7% of regional GDP. Type 2 diabetes alone accounted for approximately US$47.2 billion, or nearly half of the total direct and indirect economic burden.
The economic case for prevention is equally compelling. A separate analysis by Elmusharaf et al. (2022) published in BMJ Global Health, which examined four major non-communicable diseases, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases, estimated an annual economic burden of around US$50 billion across the GCC. The study found that implementing WHO-recommended prevention and control interventions would require an estimated US$14 billion over fifteen years while generating a return of approximately US$4.9 for every US$1 invested and preventing an estimated 290,000 premature deaths.
Prevention is therefore an economic imperative that strengthens workforce productivity and supports long-term economic resilience.
The demographic window
Unlike many advanced economies, the GCC still benefits from a relatively young population. That demographic advantage, however, will gradually narrow over the coming decades.
Based on United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 population projections and projected age structures, the number of people aged 60 years and above across the GCC is projected to increase from around 3.0 million in 2025 to more than 8.2 million by 2050.
While demographic trends differ across the region, the overall direction is clear. Saudi Arabia is expected to account for the largest increase in older residents because of its population size, while Oman is projected to experience one of the fastest rates of demographic ageing.
Figure 4. GCC population aged 60 years and above, 2025 and 2050
This demographic transition will reshape healthcare demand across the region. As populations age, the prevalence of chronic diseases typically rises, increasing demand for specialist care, long-term care and the sustained management of multiple chronic conditions.
The GCC therefore has a valuable window of opportunity. By investing in prevention, early detection and healthier ageing today, the region can reduce the future burden of chronic disease while strengthening the long-term sustainability of its healthcare systems.
Prevention Begins Long Before the Hospital
Preventive healthcare is often associated with annual medical check-ups, screening programmes and early diagnosis. While these remain important, the greatest opportunities to improve population health frequently lie outside the healthcare system.
Health outcomes are also shaped by decisions made in classrooms, workplaces, supermarkets, transport networks and urban planning. For instance: Healthier school meals can reduce childhood obesity. Walkable neighbourhoods encourage physical activity. Tobacco control lowers the risk of cancer and cardiovascular disease. Clear food labelling helps consumers make healthier choices. Workplace wellness programmes support healthier lifestyles, while digital technologies enable earlier detection, personalised interventions and more proactive disease management.
Recognising this, the World Health Organization emphasises that preventing NCDs requires a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, with responsibility extending far beyond healthcare systems to all stakeholders across sectors.
From Healthcare to Healthy Longevity
People are living longer, age-standardised disease burden has declined and the GCC remains younger than most advanced economies. At the same time, chronic diseases already account for most of the disease burden, while the population aged 60 years and above is projected to more than double by 2050.
These trends reinforce the importance of preventing or delaying chronic disease. Beyond improving individual health, prevention can help moderate future healthcare demand while supporting workforce participation, productivity and economic resilience.
For the GCC, preventive healthcare is therefore both a health and an economic imperative. Investments in prevention today can reduce the long-term burden of chronic disease while helping more people remain healthy, active and economically productive for longer.
The economics of prevention has never looked more compelling.
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